Second Order - Daily Radar, Oct 13, 2026

The AI-disruption trades the market hasn't connected yet.

1. The unpriced list

Names exposed to a live AI-disruption theme that have not moved like it yet:

• ECHO (Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless, long): exposure 0.45, moved -2.3% vs SPY since 2026-10-08, ~0% priced in. EchoStar (ticker SATS->ECHO on 2026-06-24) holds SpaceX stock from its spectrum sales
• ZD (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +3.3% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. affiliate commerce content (coupons, reviews) loses clicks
• IBTA (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.45, moved +12.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. receipt/offer cash-back tied to human shopping journeys
• MTCH (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.40, moved +0.3% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~0% priced in. subscription dating apps; agent-mediated discovery and cancellation
• TRIP (Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery, short): exposure 0.55, moved -7.5% vs SPY since 2026-09-04, ~31% priced in. review/meta-search clicks bypassed by agents

2. New threat statements in filings

• Nothing new flagged today.

3. Model portfolio (paper) - today's changes

• SIGNAL R1_second_order_short GSAT: GSAT is exposed to 'Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless' (Apple emergency-SOS satellite partner; D2C competition for handset satellite services) but has moved only -1.0% vs benchmark since 2026-10-08.
• SIGNAL R1_second_order_short IRDM: IRDM is exposed to 'Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless' (satellite voice/IoT franchise vs. Starlink direct-to-cell at scale) but has moved only -2.5% vs benchmark since 2026-10-08.
• SIGNAL R1_second_order_short ZD: ZD is exposed to 'Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery' (affiliate commerce content (coupons, reviews) loses clicks) but has moved only +3.3% vs benchmark since 2026-09-04.
• SIGNAL R1_second_order_short IBTA: IBTA is exposed to 'Personal AI agents vs. consumer inertia and ad-funded discovery' (receipt/offer cash-back tied to human shopping journeys) but has moved only +12.8% vs benchmark since 2026-09-04.
• SIGNAL M1_mention_base_rate KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-WORL: BAC said 'World Cup' on 2/4 recent calls; model 0.54 vs yes ask 0.28
• SIGNAL M1_mention_base_rate KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-TARI: BAC said 'Tariff' on 3/4 recent calls; model 0.76 vs yes ask 0.33
• SIGNAL M1_mention_base_rate KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-RECE: BAC said 'Recession' on 2/4 recent calls; model 0.46 vs yes ask 0.14
• SIGNAL M1_mention_base_rate KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-RATE: BAC said 'Rate Cut / Cut Rate' on 0/4 recent calls; model 0.11 vs no ask 0.80
• SIGNAL M1_mention_base_rate KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-PIPE: BAC said 'Pipeline' on 3/4 recent calls; model 0.70 vs no ask 0.18
• SIGNAL M1_mention_base_rate KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-MERR: BAC said 'Merrill' on 3/4 recent calls; model 0.75 vs no ask 0.08
• SIGNAL M1_mention_base_rate KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-IRAN: BAC said 'Iran / Middle East' on 0/4 recent calls; model 0.11 vs no ask 0.59
• SIGNAL M1_mention_base_rate KXEARNINGSMENTIONBAC-26OCT14-INFL: BAC said 'Inflation' on 3/4 recent calls; model 0.76 vs no ask 0.13
• Book equity_options: equity $1,000.00 (start $1,000), 0 open, 0 closed
• Book pm: equity $477.63 (start $500), 12 open, 0 closed
• Book shadow: equity $1,000.00 (start $1,000), 0 open, 0 closed

4. Earnings-call mention odds (Kalshi)

• BAC 'AI / Artificial Intelligence' (2026-10-14): model 0.11 vs ask 0.96 - said on 0/4 recent calls
• MS 'AI / Artificial Intelligence' (2026-10-14): model 0.14 vs ask 0.95 - said on 0/3 recent calls
• BAC 'Hike / Hiked' (2026-10-14): model 0.11 vs ask 0.83 - said on 0/4 recent calls
• BAC 'Delinquency' (2026-10-14): model 0.33 vs ask 0.93 - said on 1/4 recent calls
• UAL 'A321XLR' (2026-10-14): model 0.11 vs ask 0.62 - said on 0/4 recent calls

5. Watchlist scoreboard (no signals)

• SNDK (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +495.6% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
• MU (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +214.4% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
• BE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +184.7% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
• STX (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +152.7% vs SPY since 2025-12-31
• LITE (AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges): +150.7% vs SPY since 2025-12-31

Research and education only - not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or event contract. Model portfolios are paper (simulated) unless explicitly labelled live, and past or simulated results do not guarantee future results. We disclose our own positions and never trade ahead of what we publish.