AI bottlenecks and crowded hedges (watch)
watch window since 2025-12-31
Situational Awareness-style positioning: own bottlenecks (memory, on-site power, grid, cooling, optics) and hedge with puts on crowded chip names. Memory (SNDK +613% YTD, MU +272%) and power (BE +240% YTD) are already priced hot, so this theme is a scoreboard for finding the NEXT, less obvious bottleneck rather than an auto-trading theme.
| Ticker | Role | Side | Exposure | Return | vs SPY | z | Priced in | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | beneficiary | long | 0.60 | -15.9% | -30.9% | -0.7 | 0% | |
| VST | beneficiary | long | 0.60 | +1.1% | -13.9% | -0.3 | 0% | |
| CRDO | beneficiary | long | 0.60 | +37.8% | +22.8% | +0.3 | 29% | |
| CCJ | beneficiary | long | 0.40 | -5.8% | -20.8% | -0.4 | 0% | |
| LEU | beneficiary | long | 0.40 | -44.7% | -59.7% | -0.7 | 0% | |
| CMI | beneficiary | long | 0.30 | +4.8% | -10.2% | -0.4 | 0% | |
| EQT | beneficiary | long | 0.30 | +2.4% | -12.5% | -0.4 | 0% | |
| EME | beneficiary | long | 0.40 | +27.1% | +12.1% | +0.3 | 26% | |
| MOD | beneficiary | long | 0.50 | +40.4% | +25.4% | +0.4 | 43% | |
| VRT | beneficiary | long | 0.70 | +46.6% | +31.6% | +0.7 | 65% | |
| COHR | beneficiary | long | 0.60 | +57.1% | +42.1% | +0.7 | 66% | |
| GEV | beneficiary | long | 0.60 | +53.9% | +38.9% | +0.8 | 76% | |
| ETN | beneficiary | long | 0.50 | +35.3% | +20.3% | +0.7 | 74% | |
| GNRC | beneficiary | long | 0.40 | +57.1% | +42.2% | +1.0 | 97% | |
| SMH | first order | watch | 0.90 | +63.3% | +48.3% | +1.7 | n/a | crowded semis - hedge candidate |
| NVDA | first order | watch | 0.90 | +22.8% | +7.8% | +0.2 | n/a | crowded - hedge candidate |
| MU | beneficiary | long | 0.80 | +234.2% | +219.2% | +3.8 | 100% | |
| SNDK | beneficiary | long | 0.80 | +524.5% | +509.5% | +4.9 | 100% | |
| WDC | beneficiary | long | 0.60 | +121.2% | +106.2% | +1.9 | 100% | |
| STX | beneficiary | long | 0.60 | +172.2% | +157.2% | +2.6 | 100% | |
| BE | beneficiary | long | 0.70 | +203.2% | +188.2% | +1.8 | 100% | |
| PWR | beneficiary | long | 0.50 | +63.3% | +48.4% | +1.5 | 100% | |
| GLW | beneficiary | long | 0.50 | +70.5% | +55.6% | +1.6 | 100% | |
| LITE | beneficiary | long | 0.60 | +168.0% | +153.1% | +1.8 | 100% |
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