Starlink Mobile vs. terrestrial wireless
event window since 2026-10-08
SpaceX said on its first earnings call (2026-08-04) that Starlink Mobile will go after AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile customers ("roughly $600B a year"), using EchoStar spectrum plus a terrestrial build, launching as early as 2027. Carriers fell only 2-4% after hours, then 8.75-13.3% on 2026-10-09 when SpaceX bought Grain's 800 MHz spectrum (~$8B). First-order losers have repriced; second-order exposure (cable MVNOs, legacy satellite voice/IoT, handset-satellite partners) may not have.
| Ticker | Role | Side | Exposure | Return | vs SPY | z | Priced in | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECHO | beneficiary | long | 0.45 | -1.8% | -2.3% | -0.5 | EchoStar (ticker SATS->ECHO on 2026-06-24) holds SpaceX stock from its spectrum sales | |
| GSAT | second_order | short | 0.50 | -0.7% | -1.2% | -1.0 | Apple emergency-SOS satellite partner; D2C competition for handset satellite services | |
| IRDM | second_order | short | 0.60 | -1.9% | -2.4% | -0.8 | satellite voice/IoT franchise vs. Starlink direct-to-cell at scale | |
| CHTR | second_order | short | 0.45 | -1.8% | -2.2% | -0.4 | Spectrum Mobile MVNO growth engine + rural broadband overlap with Starlink | |
| CMCSA | second_order | short | 0.30 | -1.0% | -1.4% | -0.4 | Xfinity Mobile MVNO growth; broadband churn to satellite/fixed wireless | |
| VZ | first_order | short | 0.80 | -5.9% | -6.4% | -2.5 | largest US postpaid base; direct subscriber competition from 2027 | |
| T | first_order | short | 0.80 | -7.5% | -8.0% | -3.0 | postpaid + rural/enterprise exposure | |
| TMUS | first_order | short | 0.85 | -9.8% | -10.3% | -2.4 | un-carrier switchers; current Starlink partner may become rival | |
| ASTS | second_order | watch | 0.45 | -16.5% | -17.0% | -1.8 | n/a | direct D2C rival; partners AT&T/Verizon could lean on it (ambiguous sign) |
| CCI | beneficiary | long | 0.30 | +15.8% | +15.3% | +5.2 | +13% on 2026-10-09: terrestrial build may need towers | |
| AMT | beneficiary | long | 0.20 | +8.4% | +7.9% | +3.0 | +7% on 2026-10-09 | |
| SBAC | beneficiary | long | 0.20 | +7.6% | +7.2% | +2.1 | +6% on 2026-10-09 |
Get the daily radar. New threat statements from filings, the names the market hasn't connected yet, and every paper trade with entry, exit and P&L.